The wait is almost over! With the 2022 FIDE Candidates Tournament beginning June 17, we present one last deep dive on this chess-history defining tournament. The winner of this tournament is slated to play GM Magnus Carlsen in the 2023 World Championship match if it takes place. I am joined by two separate guests to discuss the players and what we can expect. First up is GM Robert Hess. Robert, of course, is an insightful and popular commentator who will be traveling to Madrid to cover the event live with his Chess.com team. Robert and I discuss each player individually, as Robert shares his reflections on what he has observed from many years of observing these players up close. Robert’s other appearance on the podcast was nearly 5 years ago, so after an hour of FIDE Candidates talk, we spend some time catching up on other chess-related matters. Following Robert, I am joined by Tai Pruce Zimmerman of the “Chess by the Numbers” blog. I always enjoy getting Tai’s insights, which are primarily derived from an Elo-rating based model. Who is statistically most likely to win? How do Tai’s numerical assessments differ from those of other models and the betting markets? Tune in to hear some fascinating Candidates discussion! As always, timestamps and relevant links are below.
Click here to Download the Episode
You can find brief timestamps below, and more details ones on the podcast website here.
FIDE Candidates info here
01:00- Intro with details on the Candidates format and Schedule.
Prior GM Robert Hess appearance
05:45- Perpetual Chess is brought to you in part by Chessable.com you can find the free “Endgame Strategy” Lesson from GM Sam Shankland here:
https://www.chessable.com/course/115673
7:45- How does Candidates prep compare for Robert and his announcing team compare to prep for an event like the World Championship?
Mentioned: WGM Almira Skripchenko, GM Daniel Naroditsky, IM Daniel Rensch
13:00- What can Robert share about GM Jan-Krystof Duda?
16:45- GM Teimour Radjabov
20:00- GM Hikaru Nakamura
Mentioned: Oparin-Nakamura 2022
29:30- GM Ian Nepomniatchtchi
Mentioned: Ian’s interview with Maria Emelianova
35:00- GM Richard Rapport
Mentioned: Rapport to Switch Federations to Romania
Aronian-Rapport 2016, Richard Rapport: A New Talent in Chess
41:00- GM Fabiano Caruana
47:15- GM Alireza Firouzja
55:45- GM Ding Liren
Mentioned: Ding Liren Officially in Candidates as FIDE Announces Participants
Here are a few of Robert’s favorite Ding games, with his own notes on why he chose each game:
Ding-Caruana -- I found this game really cool. It never looked *that bad* for Black, yet the lead-in activity ruled the day. There are so many underlying tactics in that game.
In a similar vein as the above, when Ding was probably way underrated at 2650ish at the 2011 World Team Championship (where I also participated), he turned this positional dominance into a wonderful tactical win in Ding-Areschenko.
Still on Ding, because somehow I feel he's lesser known despite his many successes, check how he starts with a space advantage in a "boring" closed game, rips it open, transitions into a pawn-up ending, and makes the whole process look EASY as in Ding-Rapport
1:07:00- How does Robert approach commentating on an event like the ongoing “I am not a GM” tourney on Chess.com?
1:15:15- Robert’s OTB exploits! How did it feel to draw GM Viswanathan Anand in 2018 and defeating GM Sam Shankland in 2019.
Mentioned: Anand-Hess 2018
1:24:45- Global Chess Championship more info here
1:26:30- How does Robert work on his commentary?
1:35:30- Robert’s Book Recs
Mentioned: Klara and the Sun
1:36:30- Does Robert get recognized in public much?
1:42:45- What is Robert looking forward to most about the Candidates?
1:46:00- Perpetual Chess is brought to you in part by Aimchess.com. Aimchess’ algorithm reviews your games and gives you actionable advice of how to improve your game. Check it out for free and if you choose to subscribe you can use the code Perpetual30 to save 30%.
1:48:00- Tai Pruce Zimmerman of the Chess by the Numbers blog joins to give an analytical perspective on the FIDE Candidates. We begin by discussing what differentiates the Candidates from other tournaments.
1:56:15- What do the betting markets and Tai’s model say the probabilities are for each player?
Mentioned: BWIN odds here, Smarter Chess Probabilities here
2:06:00- Which player does Tai think the betting market undervalues?
Thanks so much to Tai for joining us again. Be sure to subscribe to his blog and support his work via his website. Follow him on Twitter here.