The FIDE Candidates Tournament begins on April 4 in Toronto, Canada, and I could not be more excited to see who gets to challenge for the FIDE World Championship. As is tradition on Perpetual Chess, we have a few great guests joining to help discuss the action. This year offers a unique clash of generations, with the established elite like GMs Nakamura, Nepomniathchi and Caruana trying to hold off young stars like GM Firouzja and Praggnanandhaa. My first guest is 7-time Brazilian champion & Correspondence GM, Rafael Leitão. In addition to a vast resume as a player, Rafael regularly annotates top-level games for Chess.com news coverage. Reviewing these games in detail on a daily basis gives Rafael unique insights into the tendencies of the world’s top players. Rafael and I discuss what to watch for in each player’s performance, fun facts, and what opening choices we might see from each player.
Following Rafael, I am joined by Tai Pruce Zimmerman, a/k/a Chess by the Numbers. Tai shares and discusses the win probability of both the open and the women’s candidates, and we also compare the output of Tai’s probabilistic model to the betting markets. Last but not least, I am joined by “On the Queenside,” who has built a large following on Twitter and Lichess for covering Women’s Chess in detail. We discuss whether it is a good idea to run the Women’s Candidates concurrently with the open, and which players we are excited to watch. As always, the timestamps of the guests, as well as the topics and players discussed can be found below.
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0:00- Thanks to our sponsor, Chessable.com. New courses include Introduction to Chess Calculation, and GM Ganguly’s Lifetime Repertoires: Sidelines and Flank Openings for Black
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0:01- Format notes on the FIDE Candidates, including tournament schedule, tiebreak formats, and the Perpetual Chess plan for covering the event.
Mentioned: More info on the Candidates here, including tiebreak rules:
https://www.fide.com/news/2843
More from Chess.com here:
https://www.chess.com/events/2024-fide-candidates-chess-tournament
09:30- GM Rafael Leitão joins me for a detailed Candidates discussion!
Mentioned: Rafael’s prior interview was episode 147.
https://www.perpetualchesspod.com/new-blog/2019/10/15/episode-147-gm-rafael-Leitão
15:00- Can Ian Nepomniatchtchi “threepeat” at the Candidates?
21:50- We discuss GM Nijat Abasov. As the lowest rated player, does he have a chance?
25:30- GM Fabiano Caruana- is it his time again? What openings might he play?
Mentioned: Leitão-Caruana 2010
30:00- GM Praggnanandhaa Rameshababu. Can the young phenom break through?
32:30- Hikaru Nakamura. Is it finally his time?
Mentioned: GM Daniel King’s Powerplay Chess’ Preview of the tournament:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t947S0Jhj48
37:45- Alireza Firouzja! Has he learned from his disappointing performance in 2022?
44:00- GM Vidit Gujirathi: Can he continue his mid-career rise?
47:00- GM Gukesh Dommaraju: Can the youngest participant surprise?
51:30- Who does Rafael predict will win?
Mentioned: Bwin’s betting market on the Candidates:
https://sports.bwin.com/en/sports/events/candidates-tournament-2024-14808453
54:00- Rafael shares his thoughts on the Women’s Candidates. More info here:
https://www.chess.com/events/2022-2023-fide-womens-candidates
59:00- Rafael discusses his own chess career, and what is new since our prior interview. This includes a compelling argument for Chess960.
Mentioned:GM Luis Paolo Supi, Supi-Carlsen 2020
1:10:00- Tai Pruce Zimmerman aka Chess by the Numbers rejoins me to talk Candidates statistiics!
Mentioned: Betting market here:https://sports.bwin.com/en/sports/events/candidates-tournament-2024-14808453
1:31:00- What does Tai’s model say on who is most likely to win the Woman’s Candidates?
1:42:00- On the Queenside joins us. Is it a good idea to have the Women’s Candidates run concurrently with the Open Candidates for the first time?
Mentioned: On the Queenside’s preview of the Reykjavik Open, which is ongoing:
https://lichess.org/@/OnTheQueenside/blog/reykjavik-open-preview/zJaq8b7C